AFP
BEIJING, Aug 29 (AFP) - Contrary to some predictions, the Internet is unlikely to spark major political change in China in the near future, an influential US research institution said Thursday.
The report by the Washington-based Rand think-tank, which claims to be one of the most thorough analyses ever of Internet use by Chinese dissidents and Beijing's response, found a crackdown on dissidents is succeeding in
cyberspace.
As a result, while the Internet may ultimately support change, this will more probably occur in an evolutionary manner, said the report, titled "You've Got Dissent".
"The Chinese government has successfully stifled the spread of Internet-based dissent primarily by employing old 'Leninist techniques'," it said.
These include strict government regulations, surveillance, arrests, confiscation of equipment, and the use of informants.
At least 25 people have been arrested in China over the past two years because of their on-line activities, the report said.
According to the Rand Institute, there also is evidence Chinese authorities are using the Internet for their own political purposes, spreading criticism of dissidents electronically and bombarding dissidents' e-mail addresses
with thousands of bogus messages.
"Predictions that the Internet would bring revolutionary political change to China were exaggerated," said Michael Chase, who co-authored the report with noted China specialist James Mulvenon.
"The Chinese government's attempts to promote self-censorship are succeeding. The Internet is likely to support change, but it will probably be evolutionary."
China blocks a large number of Internet sites which feature dissident views and some foreign new sites as well as content such as pornography.
Authorities also launch periodic crackdowns such as a recent one against popular Internet cafes after a fire at one in Beijing killed 24 young people in June.
The use of the Internet has spread quickly in mainland China, growing from about one million users in October 1997 to more than 33 million by January this year.
Dissident political groups have adopted Internet communications, using e-mail and bulletin board sites as a way to quickly and discreetly spread information and ideas.
Such groups adopt tactics including "Internet guerilla warfare" -- spamming e-mail messages to large groups of people, sometimes including government leaders, the report said.
This can prove a boon to dissent, the authors said, for example in April 1999 when between 10,000 and 15,000 supporters of the Falungong movement
appeared unannounced at a protest in Beijing.
The event reportedly was organized largely through the use of the Internet as well as mobile phones.
Additionally, dissidents who have fled China can also use the Internet to remain active, creating websites and e-mailing "electronic magazines".
Such activities could prove harder and harder for authorities to suppress as Internet use expands beyond the mainly young and urban group who currently have access, the authors argue, perhaps eventually helping to push the country towards reform.
Source:
http://www.ptd.net/webnews/wed/ds/Qchina-internet.RUmV_CaT.html
* * *
You are welcome to print and circulate all articles published on Clearharmony and their content, but please quote the source.
more ...